Good morning. It is official, the United States and President Trump thought that the best course of action was to bunker bust the nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. I have very strong feelings on this, and as I watched the conservative influencers and main line Republicans, who were against new wars just six months ago drift into support of President Trump and his actions, I will let you know that I will not be one of those people trying to find a way to support this. The mental gymnastics it takes to figure out when some wars are good and when some are bad is a bridge too far for me. I realize that people want to root for their team, and that there are real evils in the world that need to be addressed, but I will not be one to justify our consistent march towards war. Iran is a place that remains a troubled spot in the world, but I have to look deeply into the reasons behind it, and in nearly every instance, the United States has had some involvement in the disruptions that have empowered the Mullahs and Iatolahs.
I did the mental gymnastics in the Iraq War, and I won’t do them again. I understand that it may cost me subscribers and people who were once on the same side together for the election of Donald Trump, and I apologize in advance for the parting of ways that this will incur, but as I have described before, the costs of a new forever war that engulfs the world are too great for me. I know Jack has different opinions about this, and is much more forgiving of the actions than I am, which I do think makes for a good place to get a discussion started from. I have grown tired of the American political theater. I spent a lot of time trying to elect Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and to see the Trump machine move in such a swift manner to support a war, which now includes a regime change element, according to Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post last night, makes me feel a level of betrayl and sadness, that will take some time to work through. I made intellectual arguments for the election of Mr. Trump, which now feel deeply embarrassing, and as if I were complicit in a lie about no new wars. I will continue to root for Mr. Kennedy for as long as he can stand working in that terrible town, but I will not become a cheerleader for another misadventure in the Middle East. This isn’t about a love for Iran or a dislike of Israel or anything more than an absolute detestation of war. I have seen this movie too many times in the American Empire, and I will not root for it again.
I was willing to entertain the conversation about nuclear weapons and even the involvement of the United States. I was cautious in my support, believing that the drums for war in Washington are always louder than those for peace, but when President Trump posted this last night, I was completely disilusioned and disheartened to think that we moved, in less than a 24 hour period, to actively asking about a regime change war. Over and over again, American presidents have forgotten the ills of our own nation in order to go to war and keep the defence contractors happy. The Congress is inept and won’t hold anyone accountable to a war powers measure act that would be required for a pre-emptive strike. I am not interested in “Making Iran Great Again” as Mr. Trump suggests, and I apologize for ever suspending my suspicions about politicians long enough to actively root for a campaign that in hindsight seems to have been best dishonest to many, and at worst was a play all along to get enough support to win an election.
It is going to take a moment to get my mind back to a place where I can discuss the news and politics, but maybe I won’t have to if this escalates as quickly as I think it might. The fiery ball that we all end up in at the end of a nuclear conflict will allow us to head off into the next version of our afterlife, and no thoughts will have to be spent worrying about the next foolish errand that a captured government will head into. Waste always makes me angry, and war is the biggest waste of all.
The only headline that matters to me today is the one that, in my opinion, evaporated all of the hope of a presidency for truly restoring the America that we had hoped might still exist. I will not be promoting any of this as a safe or good idea. The consequences are too great for my children and for the people whom I love. America is an unstoppable empire, finding its way towards self-destruction.
Jack’s Thoughts
I joked recently that inside me are two Johns. When it comes to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, I am John Lennon. I want peace. I want an end to the war now. But it’s not just because I am ideologically opposed to war. I think it’s strange when someone is ideologically in favour of war. Those people exist, even when they claim they only support war when it’s absolutely necessary. But with regards to Ukraine, my thinking is this: Russia will not lose this war under any circumstances, and all data points show Russia is winning this war. An IISS report recently outlined how Russia can continue fighting this war for the next two years, and likely beyond that, depending on a multitude of variables that will change in that period.
I side with the people of Ukraine. I feel their pain. And I understand. But I also report on this topic so much (you can find my work at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal) that I know continued conflict will not end well for Ukraine, or indeed for the West, or global power dynamics. A negotiated settlement right now may favour Russia, but it doesn’t mean that Russia will “win” in the long term. We have many years ahead of us as a species, I hope, and there is much to be done to improve global power dynamics. War now sets us back. Peace now gives us a chance to regroup and determine what can be done, and what is in our power, to change the relationship between the East and the West. There will be opportunities for the Eastern-aligned powers to change, too. We must not assume that every global leader will be in power forever, because they won’t. And we must not assume that future leaders will be the same, because they may not be.
But while John Lennon perches on my left shoulder, I joke that John Bolton whispers in my right ear when it comes to the Iran-Israel conflict. Heavy focus on the word “joke.” I am not Bolton, nor am I a warmonger. I am, I think, a realist - and what just happened in Iran, I think, is remarkable.
I don’t like that the U.S. conducted new strikes. I don’t like the idea of boots on the ground. I don’t like the idea of a new war in the Middle East. And I don’t like the idea of possible new terror attacks directed at the United States, which seem like a certainty at this point.
But hear me out here:
Iran was developing nuclear weapons. Iran would, in a short period of time, have enriched uranium to levels required to build those weapons. Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Iran is also not Israel.
I understand the frustration over Israel “dragging” the United States into a new conflict because I’m British, and I remember the frustration with George W. Bush dragging us into conflicts, too. But I also recognize that every conflict is different, and I cannot see how the situation with Iran could have been neutralised diplomatically. Iran is not France. The ethos, principles, and goals of its regime are in no way comparable to Western states. Negotiations do not work. Tehran violated the Obama-era agreement that Trump tore up. No agreement would have stopped their slow march toward nuclear weapons, and when Israel says it is a threat, they don’t just mean to their people and their nation. Iran’s central ethos can be summed up by the words “Death to America” - or, in fact, “Death to the West.” They are not us. They hate us. They will stop at nothing to destroy what we have.
And with that in mind, I can’t help but wonder what the world would look like when a power like this has nuclear weapons. That prospect has now been set back several years, if not much longer, and the only real chance Iran has of obtaining nuclear weapons is simply receiving them from allied nations as a gift, as former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev just suggested. And that’s a real concern I know many people now have. I’ve seen the argument that we just declared war, only for Iran to get what they want more easily. To those concerned about this prospect, let me say this: Medvedev is an attack dog.
This is a man who has been used throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict to make the most extreme threats to the West, and to intimidate Western leaders in a way Putin knows he cannot do. His comments have historically been so extreme that I can’t help but think the Kremlin allows him to say whatever he wants, giving them a chance to see how the world responds before they decide what public position to make. I do not, therefore, think nukes will be arriving in Iran any time soon. And I do think that these strikes achieved their objective.
Do I support the strikes? That’s hard to say. I know Aaron has been very down the last few days about this, and I understand that. I’m sure our readers here feel the same. I feel deflated about it, too. But I don’t feel like this is the beginning of a new Afghanistan, and I hope to God that Trump leaves it here. Regime change would be a disaster; there is no movement big enough in Iran to fill the void that would come, and attempting to do this would require boots on the ground.
If we can refrain from new attacks - assuming Iran and its ancient air force don’t try anything silly - then these strikes may have done their job. All we can do at this stage is watch what happens, urge caution, and continue to pressure the White House to exercise constraint.
This is the only news I’m concerned about today, but I don’t want today’s news update to end here. I have a question for our readers, and I am genuinely interested to hear your responses:
What should the United States have done instead?
I actually agree with both of you. This is a serious and nuanced situation. I am anti-war, and I do not agree with continuing to provoke Putin or spending billions on war (let alone continuing to encourage the death of innocent people). But, I am torn on Iran. It seems like this might have been a window to eliminate or push out a major threat to the world. I don’t pretend to know it all or even understand it all. However, blind allegiance to any leader is not a good idea. We have one savior and it isn’t Trump. I think we have to focus on the good that is happening with the future health of our country (MAHA) and the large reduction is spending on often fraudulent programs. There has been a lot of good change. Let us pray that this one doesn’t lead to another full blown war. Thank you for thoughtful opinions.